Date — October 6, 2016
The US dollar picked up the pace again today after an early dip, with a new low for the cycle in GBPUSD coming alongside a rise in dollar/yen. To confirm the greenback's potential, we'll need to see the currency firmer on the other side of tomorrow's jobs report.
EURUSD is one of the lowest beta pairs to the market moves, as the interest in a potential European Central Bank taper keeps the euro bid while strong US data has done the same for the dollar.
Nonetheless, something has to give way here soon, with the downside technical case a bit more clearcut given the many tests of the 200-day moving average.
Perhaps tomorrow's important US data will offer a clue either way.
The USDJPY rally has taken out the Ichimoku cloud for the first time in nearly a year and this could lead to the establishing of a new range toward 105-107.50, provided tomorrow's US jobs report doesn't trigger a trainwreck in fresh USD long positions as rising US yields are likely an important coincident indicator for further upside here.
AUDUSD softening again today, but with so much treacherous two-way traffic recently, it's tough to accept the locally bearish signals unless the pair develops more pronounced downside momentum and perhaps cuts through the last Fibo's in the 0.7550/00 zone.
Note the 200-day moving average slowly ascending toward the recent low near 0.7445.
USDCAD keeps springing back despite high oil prices; a test of the 1.3250/75 zone in the coming sessions is not likely to hold a fourth time and is the key trigger for bullish hopes back toward 1.3750 or higher.
At the moment $1,250/oz is the next focus and we nearly got there today. Below that, not much in the way of support until $1,172-ish, the 61.8% Fibo of the $1,050 to $1375-plus rally sequence.
Silver has taken out the vitally important $18.00/oz area and this could mean a dive all the way to $16.50/oz if the USD remains bid and precious metals out of favour.
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